Arthur’s Gardening Blog

WEEK 2 Wednesday 8th December –Tuesday 13th December 2010

ISSUED Sat 4th Dec 1300BST

POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PERIOD-moderate risk of some moderate snow in places more especially in the north and north east, moderate risk of severe frosts in the north and central areas in particular until Friday

WEEKLY SUMMARY DECEMBER WEEK 2

Another cold or very cold week but mainly dry for most as high pressure dominates. Temperatures staying well below average with the nights very cold and frosty with some freezing fog about too. Further unusually low temperatures are possible inland through the week. Snow showers affecting the far north and north east coasts at times. Rather less cold weather may move down from the north by the weekend but staying mainly dry. Becoming colder again as we go into the following week.

Wednesday 8th looks likely to see the cold N’ly flow continue over northern parts as low pressure moves down the north sea giving a cloudy night across many north eastern areas with some wintry showers about or possibly longer spells of sleet & snow in places esp near coasts and over hills but drier elsewhere with a widespread moderate to severe frost and icy patches inland. Temperatures as low as -9 to -11C in the north & Midlands, more like -5C further south inland. Some freezing fog and low cloud about here too with icy patches slow to clear if at all. Generally a dry day with some sunny periods where the cloud clears away from the north east and down the east coasts where wintry showers continue. There’s a moderate risk of some more lying snow in the north east, a few cm in places. Soon frosty again by evening. Maximum temperatures reaching about -1 to 1C generally but maybe 4C in the SW and on exposed coasts but only -5 to -3C over parts of inland Scotland, esp the Highlands and central and northern high ground.

Thursday 9th looks set to see a more N’ly flow dominate for most with high pressure to the NW and low in the North Sea so it seems after a very cold start inland with a moderate locally severe frost quite widely away from the cloudier NE and east coasts and icy patches about most parts will see a few sunny periods. Inland Scotland seeing a severe frost given the increased wind chill factor with temps as low as -7C in the glens. Staying partly cloudy night and day in most northern , north western and eastern coastal areas with wintry showers about with localised accumulations of 2-7cm but there will likely be brighter weather at times too for some though persistent mist may linger inland across western and southern England and Wales. Another moderate or severe frost with some localised freezing fog and mist patches developing inland by mid evening in the south and west where skies are clear enough. Maximum temperatures a very cold -4 to 0C generally though may be 2-3C in the more sheltered south and south west but more like -6C in the Highland glens.

Friday 10th seems likely to start very cold and frosty inland with a ridge of high pressure pushing back into the south and west but in the NWly flow a few more wintry showers on the north coasts overnight. Most areas staying dry by day but some freezing fog, ice crystals & snow grains about at times elsewhere . A moderate frost again setting into many areas inland away from the north and east coasts though by evening with further low cloud, freezing fog and mist patches developing. Temperatures reaching 1-4C in the south west and far south today and on east coasts but generally a very cold day- more like-3 to 0C in other areas and only -5C over Highland and N Scotland.

Saturday 11th and Sunday 12th are more uncertain in terms of specifics but probably likely to see milder weather push down across the north and west especially for a time as high pressure in the north retreats west. By Sunday this milder NWly flow strengthening a little more . Saturday then likely to see a cold start restricted to the SE away from coasts, temperature -4C in places inland on snow fields but generally will be 0-3C elsewhere with a lot of fog, low cloud, sleety rain and drizzle about. On Sunday more cloud and light rain or sleety outbreaks seem likely to affect many areas esp the north and east during the day with the west and south perhaps seeing the best of any brightness but a lot of fog mizzle and low cloud persisting Temperatures over the weekend by day in the north, central areas, the east and SE will likely be relatively milder at about 2 to 4C but more like 7-10C in the south west

Monday 13th and Tuesday 14th: Probably becoming colder again from the north by later Monday in a mainly N’ly flow with wintry showers moving into the north by Monday and then extending south into some other parts later mainly near coasts. Some accumulations on high ground and near NE coasts of 5-10cm are likely. Drier inland with moderate frost again by night and mist patches with icy roads. Temperatures about 2-5C in the south and 1-2C in the north.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high for the patterning & detail, but only moderate for detail from about Friday onwards

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December 2010 weather forecast
Brought to you by our experts at WiseWeather’

Detailed weekly summary for December 2010: The first week, December 1st-7th looks likely to see a cold ENE’ly flow across all parts with high pressure to the north and low to the south at first then the east by midweek bringing outbreaks of sleet and snow into SE and eastern areas with local accumulations of 5-10cm, extending across the south and central areas at times. Drier elsewhere with a few snow showers but very cold nights, as low as -10C in places quite widely inland and possibly by midweek locally as low -15C to -20C in prone areas, especially over the snowfields of the north & east of Scotland & the Highlands . By the 4th milder air will push into the SW bringing some rain preceded by snow into the SW, Wales and southern & later central areas but staying colder and mainly drier elsewhere with freezing fog patches apart from further snow showers in the far north. Clearing away but more rain preceded by sleet and snow into the far south by the 5th or 6th perhaps with some strong E-SE winds in the SW as well. Some significant snow with blizzards is possible in the south and Midlands for a time and quite wet further south, whilst the north stays very cold esp by night and drier. The week likely finishing cold with freezing fog patches in the north and central areas, still more unsettled in the south with outbreaks of rain sleet and some hill snow.

Temperatures overall will be very cold with some exceptionally cold nights though less cold in the far south and SW after midweek, perhaps becoming near average in the SW at times. Rainfall rather below average except perhaps the far SW where it may be nearer average but well below in the NW, north and NE and probably eastern & central areas too. Sunshine generally rather below average, especially in the south & west though the north may not fare too badly.

By week two. December 8th-14th, a weak ridge of high pressure may well dominate at first in the north with low pressure across the south so unsettled in the south with outbreaks of rain or perhaps hill sleet but drier further north with some sunshine in Scotland and remaining very cold at night with severe frosts but a lot of low cloud and fog about centrally, some freezing at times. By the 9th or so probably becoming a lot more unsettled everywhere as deep lows develop across the UK, there may be one to the south and to the north in fact; generally rather windy with local gales & outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow, some heavy, giving accumulations, this more esp in the north. Through until midweek further south generally cloudy with rain and heavy showers at times, possibly of hail with thunder near coasts and probably cold enough for some sleet and snow again in the showers after midweek as the winds turn more N’ly. Some slight or moderate frosts at night in sheltered places with icy patches inland. The week ending a bit more settled everywhere as the wintry showers die out from the west and a high pressure ridge returns. The showers keeping to east and NE facing coasts, penetrating less inland and night frosts developing more widely inland.

Temperatures generally well below average for most parts but just below average in the south and SW with some very chilly nights too. Rainfall should be near average everywhere but locally above average in the north west; sunshine rather below average for most though locally in the east and SE nearer the average.

During week three, December 15th-21st it seems as if high pressure may dominate for a few days at least giving a quieter spell of weather for most. Some frost and night fog, freezing in places will be slow to clear inland. Sunny spells by day where fog clears especially in the south west & around coasts. However by the 17th or 18th we think the high may pull back to the west or SW allowing more unsettled weather to run SE across the UK bringing some rain to the NW at first. Drier for a day or so further south and east but some rain or hill sleet here too later. Perhaps then cooler everywhere from the latter part of the week as a chilly N or NW’ly flow dominates bringing wintry showers into the north and north –west though drier further south and east. Some hill snow across Scotland & N England and maybe on lower ground as well . Wales and central areas of England also seeing a few wintry showers by day. The east & south east may stay mainly drier and bright though with some low cloud around at times by night. Rather cold nights centrally with air frosts inland and mist patches too.

Temperatures generally near or slightly below average overall for most parts with some rather cold nights later especially inland though perhaps not far from average in the west and SW, rainfall generally below average with sunshine near average or possibly a little above average in the south and east .

Whilst there are no very clear indications about the Christmas period and towards the New Year it will probably become rather unsettled as low pressure dominates to the north & NW and maybe swings across the north into the North See at times bringing N or NW’ ly flows. Whilst the SE stays driest, rain and wintry showers will likely affect much of the UK at times, heavy on western and north western upslopes with snow across Scotland and Northern England in particular in the cold N or NW’ly flows and with some at lower levels too. Some frost by night inland at times but it will generally probably be too unsettled in the main for this to be very severe or indeed widespread; a lot of low cloud about though for many areas. Generally colder after Xmas with a more N-NEly flow likely, bringing snow showers to north and east coasts at times and more widespread inlands frosts by night. There may be more widespread snow at times in central & eastern parts spreading inland from the NE, whilst the west stays somewhat drier and brighter apart from wintry showers on north facing coasts

Temperatures near or slightly below average, but probably not too chilly anywhere though in this period and some fairly mild nights in the south at times but equally quite cold nights in the north and centrally later on too, with frosts. Sunshine near average overall and rainfall generally near or slightly below average in the south and east though maybe nearer average in the west and NW.

Sea temperatures staying rather below average for most parts and through the North Sea Soil temperatures seem likely to be rather below average for most parts with soil moisture also near or below average for most areas away from the NW and SW by the month’s end.

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